Risk intelligence is the ability to estimate probabilities accurately. In online gambling, it is about having the right amount of certainty to make educated guesses. The skill may seem simple but it is quite complex. It turns out to be a deep thing about how to work on the basis of limited information and cope with uncertainty.
The history of risk intelligence
In the 1960s, two American psychologists studied a group of gamblers over a four-year period. The men were avid racetrack enthusiasts. None of them earned their living by wagering but attended races nearly every day to gamble. It was found that some men in the group were remarkably better at estimating the chance that a given horse will win a particular race. This method is known as handicapping.
The psychologists were trying to figure out whether it is a cognitive ability that allowed certain players to gamble successfully or if they had developed the skill to estimate probabilities accurately. This eventually became risk intelligence.
Clearing the test
First, players need a set of predictions. For instance in horse racing, predictions revolve around which one will win the race. The probabilities are listed for varying outcomes: horse X will win and horse Y will place second or horse Y will win and horse X will place second, etc. After that, they are assigned a percentage.
The probability that a horse will win is performed best in percentages in the multiple of ten. After you get the results, the win/loss can be placed in the designated groups. Using the data collected from the previous race, the process is repeated. This method is the basis for creating effective risk intelligence.
How effective risk intelligence helps in gambling
Risk intelligence is a determining factor in estimating the probabilities in gambling. For instance, if a game offers 4:1 odds for a certain outcome, this means that the probability of the outcome is 25%. In simple words, it would not be a smart move to make. However, the chances of winning can be 30-35% and this is known as overlay. If a gambler has good risk intelligence, he will have a greater advantage against the bookmaker and the bettors.
Although bookies have certain advantages over players, they lack expertise. You can use your focus on a single event to build a better model for the game. The software also provides methods to determine risk factors for games like live blackjack, poker, slots, baccarat, mobile blackjack and many more. They can calculate the odds with more efficiency and without running the risk of human error. You can download such tools available for free on the internet. The casino review section can provide you with valuable information about these tools.
Practising to perfection
Practising risk intelligence will make you perfect at it. You will have a much clearer picture of a particular factor that has impacted numerous sports events. At first, you might not bet on your favourite team because their playmaker is injured; but they go on winning 8 times in a row with a substitute. You might then realise that the player is not a big factor as you had thought.
You can win a lot more once you’re able to use risk intelligence effectively. The basic idea of this method is to tell the difference between betting on 85% odds and something that only has a 50% chance of occurring. There are a few percentages that account for huge strokes of bad luck. However, if you can predict fairly accurate, even betting on 80% odds means your wager will be profitable in the long run.
Beware of overconfidence
Overconfidence can be a big obstacle to developing effective risk intelligence. To be successful in gambling, you must follow a strategy and have the knowledge of the game. Intelligent gambling behoves a gambler not to be overly confident in their skills. The odds are never 100% in your favour because of the excess variable involved. However, with effective risk intelligence, any outcome can be in your favour.